Templeton Management Ltd.
James Gauthier,
Analyst
June2000
Contents
A.
Overview
B. Performance
Measurement
i. Ultimate
Tables
ii. Style Cluster Results
C. Fund
Correlation
D. Management
Expense Ratio Analysis
E. Model
Portfolios
A. Templeton Management Ltd.– An
overview
Lately for Templeton, the going’s been very tough. The firm hasn’t had a
standout year since 1996 and since that point the blood-letting hasn’t ceased.
The following table details Templeton’s recent woes.
|
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% of funds that were Q1 |
% of funds that were Q3 or Q4 |
|
1996 |
58% |
33% |
|
1997 |
17% |
42% |
|
1998 |
7% |
79% |
|
1999 |
7% |
79% |
|
YTD |
7% |
71% |
|
Month ended Apr. 30 |
57% |
29% |
The rapid fall from glory is quite shocking and the reason for it can be
summarized quite easily. Investors’ temperament began to change in 1997. Value
was not producing returns while growth began picking up steam. This all
culminated in 1999 when the tech-heavy Nasdaq returned over 80% and value stocks
were about as cold as Siberia in the middle of January. The result of this has
been a fall in the relative position of Templeton from being the fifth largest
money manager in April 1997 to the tenth largest in Aril of this year.
Templeton Management prides itself in being a firm that has a strict value
discipline. Globally and domestically, most of the portfolios are loaded with
cheap stocks, and unfortunately for Templeton diehards, it is a growth strategy
that has been successful as of late. The good news is that value stocks are
finally beginning to appear on the radar screen again. Since the Nasdaq’s high
on March 10, stocks that have taken a beating over the past three years are
gaining strength. Templeton has never strayed from their discipline and is
positioned to capitalize on a continuation of the value resurgence. Looking at
the one-month period ended of April 30,2000, virtually all of Templeton’s equity
funds achieved first or second quartile performances. This is a good sign and we
feel the trend will continue. It is likely that the value-based equity funds
have already reached bottom.
However, we do have issues with the bond management decisions made at
Templeton. As interest rates rose over the past year, Templeton elected to
maintain bond durations greater than the index. This is a sure-fire way to
underperform. Hence, all balanced and bond funds in the family performed poorly
over the period. It is apparent that the majority of the interest rate
increases, particularly in the US, have been completed so the worst is probably
over on the fixed income side. We would still recommend caution before investing
in any of Templeton’s funds with large bond positions, however.
Having no true growth element has seriosly hurt Templeton from a company
standpoint but a recent announcement is sure to have the corporate execs
smiling. The firm has launched seven new Franklin funds in Canada. The funds
will be managed by Franklin Advisers, Inc. which is part of Franklin Templeton
Investments in the US. These funds are all growth and include Franklin US Large
Cap Growth fund, Technology fund, Aggressive Growth fund, and World Telecom
fund. These are completely new offerings and will not be based on Franklin’s
well-established US funds.
The funds are available now and they will give Templeton a much more rounded
family.
QuickFacts about Templeton Management Ltd.
- Templeton Management oversees $22.8-billion for Canadian investors, making
it the tenth largest mutual company in terms of assets under management.
- The largest fund in Canada in the Templeton Growth fund with over
$11-billion in assets
- Franklin Templeton, parent firm of Templeton Mgt., manages US$226-billion
worldwide.
- Templeton is a value-oriented firm and this philosophy has held them back
recently.
- The addition of seven new growth-oriented Fraklin funds gives Templeton a
more style-diversified line-up.
B. Performance Measurement
|
Stars |
Fund |
91 |
92 |
93 |
94 |
95 |
96 |
97 |
98 |
99 |
Apr-00 |
Up Mkt Grade |
Down Mkt Grade |
% of Time Losing $ |
Biggest Drop |
Date of Biggest Drop |
Months to Recover |
Worst 12 Mos |
MER |
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Franklin U.S. Sml Cap Gro |
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- |
- |
28.00% |
-32.51% |
31-May-98 |
13 |
0.8031884 |
2.50 |
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Mutual Beacon Fund |
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- |
- |
21.43% |
-16.54% |
30-Jun-98 |
12 |
0.9402644 |
2.50 |
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Templeton Balanced |
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C |
C |
27.98% |
-26.86% |
31-Aug-87 |
72 |
0.785512 |
1.95 |
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Peter Moeschter manages the equity portion of this fund and Jeffrey
Sutcliffe takes care of the bond side. Equities make up 62% of the fund,
fixed income accounts for 31% and the remainder is in cash. The fund's
foreign content has been maximized. Performance has really lagged and much
of that can be attributed to the value approach on the equity side. We
don't think this is a very good balanced fund. It's been an
underperformer. We question the bond manager's strategy of having a higher
duration than the index during a time of rising interest
rates. |
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Templeton Cdn Asset All |
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- |
- |
10.91% |
-11.89% |
31-May-98 |
13 |
0.9449453 |
2.15 |
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George Morgan and Jeffrey Sutcliffe make up the team for this fund. Its
primary investments are in sectors that have really been out of favour
including energy sources, metals and mining and banks. The fund has
underperformed its peers every year it's been in existence and it may be
worthwhile for the firm to merge it into Templeton Balanced. In the
meantime, stay away from this stinker. |
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Templeton Canadian Bond |
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D |
A |
14.16% |
-8.15% |
28-Feb-94 |
19 |
0.9443564 |
1.65 |
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The bottom line is that his fund has been a dog since it was introduced
in 1990. There are lots of corporates and provincials to help diversify
the portfolio but the 20% foreign position hasn't seemed to help. As
interest rates were rising this fund had a duration significantly higher
than the index, a strategy that simply makes no sense. We would recommend
looking for a bond fund elsewhere. |
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Templeton Canadian Stock |
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D |
C |
33.06% |
-19.27% |
31-May-98 |
NA |
0.8361766 |
2.44 |
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Norm Boersma has been struggling to provide investors with outstanding
returns, even in 1999. This 'Canadian' stock fund has in fact maximized
its foreign content. Larger holdings include BCE, Clarica, Abitibi and Rio
Algom. There's no doubt that value has been unfashionable but
unfortunately, this fund underperformed even when cheap stocks were cool.
Although this is a conservative fund that won't take short term bets to
boost performance, it's a dog and there's no evidence to indicate this
will change. |
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Templeton Emerging Market |
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B |
B |
37.36% |
-47.61% |
31-Aug-97 |
NA |
0.5602534 |
3.62 |
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Manager Mark Mobius has the looks, name and credentials to be mistaken
for a starship captain, and boy, does he know his international equities.
Telecom companies account for close to 30% of total assets.
Geographically, Mobius likes Latin America and Asia. These regions make up
40% and 28% of the portfolio, respectively. Unfortunately, Mobius'
performance doesn't match his persona. This fund has not stood out since
he took over in 1991 and a major contributor to that is its overwhelming
MER. |
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Templeton Global Balanced |
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- |
- |
9.09% |
-9.33% |
31-May-98 |
11 |
0.9663935 |
2.46 |
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What's the difference between this Heather Arnold and Thomas Dickson
run fund and the International Balanced fund? Well, this one is allowed to
invest in the US. Nevertheless, it is still an underperformer. Stocks are
selected using a bottom-up approach. No effort is made to keep country or
sector weightings close to the index. For the bond portfolio, economic
data is scrutinized and debt is purchased based on Country strength and
attractiveness. The addition of some growth names might help this fund but
until some improvements in performance are made, we recommend you look
elsewhere. |
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Templeton Global Bond |
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C |
- |
17.69% |
-12.61% |
31-Jan-99 |
NA |
0.964367 |
2.20 |
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Global bonds have underperformed big time over the last two-and-a-half
years and this fund hasn't been able to buck the trend. Diversification is
the key to this fund. Management attempts to add value by selecting the
right currencies and by playing the spread between different bonds. A
macro view is taken to come up with predictions for world economies
resulting in predictions for world currencies and world bonds. Global bond
funds provide fixed income exposure to countries with vastly different
economies than Canada's. We have a relatively neutral position on this
particular global bond fund, however. |
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Templeton Glo Smaller Co |
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C |
C |
15.32% |
-21.65% |
31-Oct-89 |
19 |
0.79237 |
2.69 |
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Manager Bradley Radin hasn't been able to find great small-cap buys in
the US. Europe makes up 40% of the fund, Asia is 20% while the US is also
only 20%. Interestingly, health and personal care companies are the
biggest sector in the fund at 13% of assets. Radin does fundamental
analysis on the firms he looks at, paying special attention to companies
that have and will continue to grow earnings faster than the economy's
growth. He also likes companies that are becoming more recognized or that
are recovering from financial or other difficulties. The 'global' in this
fund's name is accurate and we feel this is suitable for the investor who
is somewhat conservative. As a small portion of a portfolio, we like
it. |
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Templeton Growth |
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A |
B |
15.56% |
-27.17% |
30-Sep-87 |
22 |
0.7421517 |
2.00 |
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Templeton's flagship fund, this is also Canada's largest mutual fund
with roughly $11 billion in assets. Truly a global fund, the portfolio has
positions in over 25 countries. The US is the largest position, accounting
for a quarter of assets. The largest names in the fund are internationally
known firms such as Sony, GE and GM. Finding relatively cheap stocks on a
global level is the key here but manager Mark Holowesko has added a few
high flying telecom stocks to spice things up. As value investing slowly
return to the markets, the faithful to this offering will be rewarded. It
is diversified enough to be held as a core foreign equity
fund. |
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Templeton Intl Balanced |
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- |
18.18% |
-12.36% |
31-May-98 |
14 |
0.9049985 |
2.55 |
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In the case of this fund, international means anything outside of the
US and Canada. Right now Europe is the favourite region of managers Thomas
Dickson and Norm Boersma. Management's top stock picks are mainly 'old
economy' and the value bias is certainly evident. Unfortunately, this one
has had trouble getting into a groove. It is relatively conservative but
there are more efficient ways to play the global securities
markets. |
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Templeton Intl Stock |
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A |
D |
12.90% |
-17.03% |
31-Aug-98 |
10 |
0.8630233 |
2.51 |
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Sub-par performance continues with this fund but we still have the
utmost confidence in its manager, Don Reed. He has created a graceful bias
towards growth stocks and momentum, however, he has not and will not
forget his value roots. This fund is still cheap. Essentially this fund is
Templeton Growth minus the North American portion. Templeton's expertise
in the Global arena is well known and we feel this fund represents a good
buy. |
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Templeton Treasury Bill |
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B |
- |
0.00% |
0.00% |
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NA |
1.021742 |
0.75 |
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Templeton Emerg Mkts RSP |
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- |
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-11.25% |
31-Jan-00 |
NA |
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4.12 |
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Templeton Glo Sml Co RSP |
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- |
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-0.56% |
30-Apr-00 |
NA |
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3.19 |
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Templeton Growth RSP |
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- |
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-9.06% |
31-Jan-00 |
NA |
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2.50 |
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Templeton Intl Stock RSP |
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- |
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-5.66% |
31-Jan-00 |
NA |
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3.01 |
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Style Cluster
By comparing a fund’s performance to the performance of its peers we can
determine how good of a job the portfolio manager has done in adding
value.
|
Fund Name |
Fund Return |
Cluster Return |
Manager Added Value |
|
Templeton Balanced |
7.4% |
6.4% |
1% |
|
Temp. Cdn Asset Allocation |
5.2% |
5.6% |
-.4% |
|
Temp. Cdn Bond |
1.9% |
4.3% |
-2.4% |
|
Temp. Cdn Stock |
5.5% |
5.9% |
-.4% |
|
Temp. Emerging Markets |
-1.4% |
-2.5% |
1.1% |
|
Temp. Global Balanced |
5.8% |
10.3% |
-4.5% |
|
Temp. Global Bond |
-2.3% |
3.9% |
-6.2% |
|
Temp. Global Smaller Co |
7.6% |
3.5% |
4.1% |
|
Templeton Growth |
8.7% |
7.2% |
1.5% |
|
Temp. Intl Balanced |
2.9% |
10% |
-7.1% |
|
Temp. Intl Stock |
11.3% |
9% |
2.3% |
Note: Funds must have at least 36 months of data to be included in
analysis.
When we say peers, we mean funds that historically have had extremely similar
patterns of performance because, intuitively, funds appearing to have had
comparable numbers employ the same style (although this analysis does not
explicitly test for that). This approach acts as a far more detailed comparison
than looking at funds using blanket style labels such as "small-cap growth".
The method analyzes the correlation of a fund’s monthly returns with those of
other funds and identifies the most closely related fund clusters. In this table
the three year compounded returns to April 31, 2000 are used. The cluster return
is based on the return of the 12 closest peers. The cluster analysis includes
eleven of Templeton’s most popular funds.
According to the analysis, the portfolio managers of Templeton’s three
largest equity funds have each added value. On the other hand, none of
Templeton’s funds display high levels of value added. The greatest number is the
4.1% added to the Global Smaller Companies fund. However, the family as a whole
has been unable to perform in a manner that would indicate manager value added.
On average, there was actually a 1.2% reduction in value for each fund. There is
one underlying reason for this. Templeton’s managers strive to follow the
investment philosophy of the firm’s founder, Sir John Templeton, which is a
bottom-up, research driven value approach. This has prevented a great deal of
money from getting into the white-hot technology sector due to its high
valuations. Such neglect of the biggest moving sector over the last three years
almost wipes out completely the possibility of superior value added.
The biggest laggard in the family has been the Global Bond fund which has
trailed its peers by 6.2%. In our opinion, poor duration decisions are behind
this weak performance.
C. Fund
Correlation
Correlation, in this context, is a measure of similarity between funds. It is
a useful tool that can help identify diversification in the portfolio. The
formula for correlation is covariance divided by the product of the standard
deviations of the two subjects. The measure runs from –1.00 to +1.00 and we
consider any correlation of .85 or greater to be high (these are highlighted).
It is useful because suppose you have a portfolio of three funds, all having
correlations of greater than .85. There is essentially little diversification in
the portfolio. You could sell off two of the funds and invest the proceeds in
the remaining fund without worrying about diversification being lost because
there wasn’t any to begin with. On the other hand, if you had a correlation of
.42 between a pair of funds, redundancy would not be an issue. The following
table details the correlations among Templeton funds.
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
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1 - Franklin U.S. Sml Cap Gro |
1.00 |
0.75 |
0.86 |
0.82 |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.65 |
0.72 |
0.52 |
0.71 |
0.69 |
0.64 |
0.58 |
-0.20 |
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2 - Mutual Beacon Fund C$ |
|
1.00 |
0.81 |
0.79 |
0.03 |
0.85 |
0.73 |
0.83 |
0.41 |
0.86 |
0.85 |
0.83 |
0.82 |
-0.18 |
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3 - Templeton Balanced |
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1.00 |
0.96 |
0.49 |
0.88 |
0.62 |
0.89 |
-0.07 |
0.63 |
0.85 |
0.83 |
0.67 |
-0.11 |
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4 - Templeton Cdn Asset All |
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1.00 |
0.44 |
0.96 |
0.76 |
0.89 |
0.56 |
0.75 |
0.87 |
0.79 |
0.75 |
-0.01 |
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5 - Templeton Canadian Bond |
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1.00 |
0.41 |
0.24 |
0.27 |
0.43 |
0.28 |
0.34 |
0.15 |
0.39 |
0.13 |
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6 - Templeton Canadian Stock |
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1.00 |
0.62 |
0.88 |
0.08 |
0.62 |
0.73 |
0.83 |
0.69 |
-0.20 |
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7 - Templeton Emerging Market |
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1.00 |
0.78 |
0.26 |
0.52 |
0.60 |
0.75 |
0.58 |
-0.01 |
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8 - Templeton Global Balanced |
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1.00 |
0.62 |
0.83 |
0.94 |
0.93 |
0.89 |
-0.04 |
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9 - Templeton Global Bond |
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1.00 |
0.16 |
0.26 |
0.52 |
0.37 |
0.05 |
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10 - Templeton Glo Smaller Co |
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1.00 |
0.85 |
0.87 |
0.87 |
-0.24 |
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11 - Templeton Growth |
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1.00 |
0.91 |
0.90 |
-0.08 |
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12 - Templeton Intl Balanced |
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1.00 |
0.97 |
-0.04 |
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13 - Templeton Intl Stock |
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1.00 |
-0.29 |
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14 - Templeton Treasury Bill |
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1.00 |
Note: Funds must have at least 36 months of data to be included in
analysis.
D.
Management Expense Ratio Analysis
Templeton has funds that run the MER spectrum. Some are cheap, some are
expensive. The average MER percent rank for the family is just under .50, so the
cost of each fund in the family must be looked at individually.
MER and percent rank for selected AIM funds
|
Fund name (English) |
Fund Type |
MER |
% Rank |
|
Franklin U.S. Sml Cap Gro |
U.S. Equity |
2.5 |
0.576 |
|
Mutual Beacon Fund C$ |
U.S. Equity |
2.5 |
0.576 |
|
Templeton Balanced |
Balanced / Asset Allocation |
1.95 |
0.203 |
|
Templeton Canadian Bond |
Canadian Bond |
1.65 |
0.475 |
|
Templeton Canadian Stock |
Canadian Equity |
2.44 |
0.539 |
|
Templeton Cdn Asset All |
Balanced / Asset Allocation |
2.15 |
0.312 |
|
Templeton Emerging Market |
International Equity |
3.62 |
0.911 |
|
Templeton Glo Smaller Co |
International Equity |
2.2 |
0.486 |
|
Templeton Global Balanced |
Balanced / Asset Allocation |
2.46 |
0.676 |
|
Templeton Global Bond |
Foreign Bond |
2.46 |
0.675 |
|
Templeton Growth |
International Equity |
2 |
0.165 |
|
Templeton Intl Balanced |
Balanced / Asset Allocation |
2.55 |
0.676 |
|
Templeton Intl Stock |
International Equity |
2.51 |
0.362 |
|
Templeton Treasury Bill |
Canadian Money Market |
0.75 |
0.274 |
E. Model Portfolios
|
Nester |
|
|
|
|
|
Templeton Canadian Bond |
47% |
|
Avg MER |
1.60% |
|
Templeton Canadian Stock |
25% |
|
Avg Annual Return |
7.08% |
|
Franklin U.S. Small Cap Growth |
6% |
|
Best Year |
19.78% |
|
Templeton Treasury Bill |
22% |
|
Worst Year |
-2.98% |
|
|
|
|
% of Losing Years |
3.73% |
|
|
|
|
% of Years less than +5% |
29.10% |
|
|
|
|
Biggest Drop |
-6.29% |
|
|
|
|
Months to Recover |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 Nester
This type of person
doesn’t care much about managing money. Nesters equate money with
comfort not security. They aren’t interested in leaving money for
their kids, but rather in living for today. These individuals really
don’t have much in the way of investments and just want to get by.
Nesters do not believe that a person's wealth is equated with his or
her worth. | |
|
|
|
|
Idealist |
|
|
|
|
|
Templeton Canadian Bond |
47% |
|
Avg MER |
1.70% |
|
Templeton Canadian Stock |
25% |
|
Avg Annual Return |
7.10% |
|
Franklin U.S. Small Cap Growth |
6% |
|
Best Year |
21.07% |
|
Templeton Treasury Bill |
22% |
|
Worst Year |
-4.05% |
|
|
|
|
% of Losing Years |
5.22% |
|
|
|
|
% of Years less than +5% |
31.34% |
|
|
|
|
Biggest Drop |
-6.47% |
|
|
|
|
Months to Recover |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Idealists are
generous thrifty people who don’t much care for money. They wouldn’t
be devastated by a losing investment; but then again, they’re not
that likely to be involved much in vesting. For them money means
security, not happiness.
| |
|
|
|
|
Splurger |
|
|
|
|
|
Templeton Growth |
13% |
|
Avg MER |
2.10% |
|
Templeton Canadian Bond |
37% |
|
Avg Annual Return |
9.16% |
|
Templeton Canadian Stock |
33% |
|
Best Year |
31.71% |
|
Franklin U.S. Small Cap Growth |
17% |
|
Worst Year |
-6.88% |
|
|
|
|
% of Losing Years |
15.44% |
|
|
|
|
% of Years less than +5% |
32.89% |
|
|
|
|
Biggest Drop |
-14.34% |
|
|
|
|
Months to Recover |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 Splurgers buy luxuries. They are also quite risk-averse.
These individuals are hunters but without the financial acumen. They
appreciate those who appreciate the best, and aren’t very
particle.
| |
|
|
|
|
Protector |
|
|
|
|
|
Templeton Growth |
23% |
|
Avg MER |
2.17% |
|
Templeton Canadian Bond |
18% |
|
Avg Annual Return |
9.54% |
|
Templeton Canadian Stock |
27% |
|
Best Year |
31.90% |
|
Franklin U.S. Small Cap Growth |
17% |
|
Worst Year |
-8.39% |
|
Templeton Global Bond |
15% |
|
% of Losing Years |
16.78% |
|
|
|
|
% of Years less than +5% |
28.19% |
|
|
|
|
Biggest Drop |
-17.09% |
|
|
|
|
Months to Recover |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Protectors put others first. They
are financially savvy and have adequate insurance,
or more. They are competent, stable and think of others first in
financial affairs.
| |
|
|
|
Hunter |
|
|
|
|
|
Templeton Global Bond |
11% |
|
Avg MER |
2.57% |
|
Templeton Growth |
23% |
|
Avg Annual Return |
9.91% |
|
Templeton Canadian Stock |
28% |
|
Best Year |
47.12% |
|
Templeton Emerging Markets |
21% |
|
Worst Year |
-19.44% |
|
Franklin U.S. Small Cap Growth |
17% |
|
% of Losing Years |
21.48% |
|
|
|
|
% of Years less than +5% |
34.23% |
|
|
|
|
Biggest Drop |
-23.76% |
|
|
|
|
Months to Recover |
21 | |
 Hunters are high income individuals
who are aggressive about making, spending and investing their money.
Sometimes hunters are extravagant and they generally equate money
with happiness, achievement or power. Hunters feel comfortable
choosing investments and believe that it takes intelligence and guts
to
| |
|
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